前不久，吉尔吉斯斯坦总统扎帕罗夫高兴地宣布，中国-吉尔吉斯-乌兹别克三国铁路将在2024年10月动工。    Another Scottish independence referendum could be risky for the regional government in Edinburgh, an academic and analyst has said.,Embattled British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wrote to Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and first minister in the devolved administration, on Wednesday evening to deny her latest demand for a re-run of the 2014 plebiscite.,"As our country faces unprecedented challenges at home and abroad, I cannot agree that now is the time to return to a question, which was clearly answered by the people of Scotland in 2014," Johnson wrote.,Sturgeon announced in June that Scotland's Lord Advocate Dorothy Bain — whose cabinet post combines the powers of the Westminster government's attorney general and the director of public prosecutions — would ask the Supreme Court to rule on the legality of holding another vote without necessary approval from the Westminster Parliament.,The nationalist leader claimed Scots would vote to separate from England — where many of them work — out of a desire to reverse Brexit and opposition to 12 years of government by the Conservative Party, which holds few Parliamentary seats in Scotland.,Dr Roslyn Fuller, director of the non-profit think tank Solonian Democracy Institute and the author of the book Beasts and Gods: How Democracy Changed Its Meaning and Lost Its Purpose told Sputnik that while pushing for a repeat referendum was central to the SNP's identity, it was also a dangerous gamble.,She said SNP's planned vote next year would only be "advisory" and "non-binding", but that it also took the party back to its basic reason for being.,"I think the SNP has the same challenges that many other independence parties like Sinn Fein or the Bloc Quebecois have — they succeed in attaining power in their own region which forces them to go from a single-issue party (independence) to develop a multitude of other policies that voters then judge them on," the academic said.,"They end up working within the system they intended to break away from and this can dilute their message," Fuller added. "Sturgeon and the SNP generally need to be seen to be continuing to pursue independence to satisfy a certain portion of their voters, and this is a way to achieve that".,Running the plebiscite — with legal sanction — and winning would give the SNP a boost going in to the next general election, due by the end of January 2025 but potentially much sooner, the analyst believes.,Even if the vote was blocked, Sturgeon has already stated that she would consider the next general election a de-facto referendum on independence, she points out. "So again, it would serve to drive out the vote for the SNP and try to focus attention on this one issue (independence) that differentiates them from the other major parties.","The only really risky situation for her would be if the Court did greenlight such an advisory referendum and it failed at the polls," Fuller stressed.,The 'Yes' campaign was leading in the polls in the run-up to the 2014 referendum, but ultimately the 10 per cent of voters declaring themselves undecided went overwhelmingly to the 'No' camp. Scotland voted by 55 per cent to 45 to remain part of the UK.,The key unknown factor, according to Fuller, is who succeeds Johnson as next Tory leader an PM.,"My personal feeling is that we'll be seeing a turn of the Tories back to more establishment politics with likely quite different policies," she says. "I think they ran Johnson as a counter to Corbyn, but that job is done now that the Labour party has turned back to its own centre.",Fuller argues that such a major change of political direction would be significant enough that a snap general election should be called to seek a new mandate to govern. She says the SNP's performance at the polls would be crucial to their referendum bid.,Prof: Scottish Independence Requires Serious Debate Amid Soaring Cost of Living in UK16 June, 12:47 GMT,Legal Avenues,The think-tank director believes Sturgeon's appeal to the Supreme Court shows the SNP is anxious keep its latest bid for a referendum on firm legal ground, since its declared pretext for the vote is so Scotland can re-apply for membership of the European Union (EU). But she cautioned that would open "a whole can of worms.","Firstly, it clouds the entire idea of independence. It Scotland were to re-join the EU, which is heading towards getting rid of unanimity voting, the average Scot would have significantly less power than they do if they remain in the UK," she says.,"It is not 'independence' in any actual meaning of the word," Fuller stressed. "How do you run an 'independence' referendum on the understanding that if you win, you are going to join a larger, even less democratic, entity?",But more importantly, an unsanctioned 'indyref' would put the SNP in the same bracket as the coalition of Catalan nationalist parties who held an unofficial plebiscite in 2017, in which only supporters of independence bothered to vote. The political organisers found themselves arrested and charged or, in the case of then-regional president Carles Puigdemont, fleeing abroad as a fugitive.,"There are countries in the EU, like Spain, that are very much against separatist referendums, so getting some kind of legal blessing for this is probably necessary to retain their support," Fuller says.。

二 | 他说，铁路建成后，将使吉尔吉斯进入世界市场，通过铁路连接海洋。为什么吉尔吉斯斯坦总统会如此兴高采烈呢？这要从中亚地区的地理特征说起。苏联解体之后，中亚地区的几个加盟共和国纷纷独立。在这个区域，一共出现了好几个带有斯坦后缀的新国家，包括哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和土库曼斯坦。这些国家有个共同的特点，就是没有海岸线。

三 | 其中，吉尔吉斯斯坦是距离大海最远的一个。如果向南，要经过塔吉克斯坦、阿富汗、巴基斯坦这三个国家，才能抵达印度洋。

四 | 如果向北，要穿过哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯两个国家，才能抵达北冰洋。向西抵达黑海、地中海或者大西洋，那是根本不敢做的梦。但是，如果向东，只要穿过一个国家，就能抵达太平洋。

五 | 这个国家就是我们中国。

其实，与吉尔吉斯接壤的是中国新疆，距离大海，还有3000多公里的直线距离。但是在这些中亚国家看来，中国是一个交通非常发达的国家，到了中国，就离出海不远了。吉尔吉斯斯坦是个只有700万人口的小国，人均GDP只有1500多美元，不到中国的六分之一。这个国家金属矿产资源非常丰富，但麻烦的是缺乏石油天然气。因此，吉尔吉斯斯坦的经济发展环境并不好，政府面临比较大的压力。

如果能方便地通向大海，那么吉尔吉斯的经济就有了希望。所以，修建通往中国的铁路，连入欧亚大陆桥，就是这个内陆国家最现实的发展需求。吉尔吉斯专家认为，铁路建成后，即使仅仅收取欧亚大陆桥的转运服务费，每年就可以得到2亿美元的收入。不过，吉尔吉斯是一个山国，平均海拔2750米，90％领土海拔超过1500米。苏联时期哪怕拥有社会主义制度优势，也没有人力物力，在这里修建铁路。如今这个国家只有两段铁路，而且互相不通。北部有300多公里，南部有100多公里。

六 | 计划里的中吉哈三国铁路，要开凿隧道50处以上，建立桥梁超过90座。这个工程，除了中国，谁也没有本事接。

七 |

其实，中国很早就提出修建中亚铁路，其中也包括中吉乌三国铁路，为当地经济发展服务。但是俄罗斯一直反对这个铁路工程。苏联解体后，俄罗斯牵头建立了独联体，试图继续维持对前苏联加盟共和国的经济和政治影响。波罗的海三国先后疏远独联体之后，俄罗斯的危机感就更加深刻了。中亚地区经济不发达、俄罗斯族人口比例小，在苏联时代就被称为“柔软的下腹部”。铁路工程往往能改变一个地区的战略格局，因此俄罗斯对中亚铁路网是相当敏感的。中国没有兴趣触动俄罗斯敏感的神经，更不会利用危机，对俄搞落井下石。所以，这项铁路工程就搁置了下来。

八 | 乌克兰战争爆发后，俄罗斯的外部处境发生了很大变化。俄需要每一个邻国的支持，来维持自己的对外贸易。

九 | 根据美国媒体的报道，俄罗斯用在精确制导弹药上的很多电子元器件，是从中亚国家转口的。在这样的情况下，俄罗斯就无法再为了自己那点小心思，不让中亚国家开通财路。

十 |

对于三国铁路，西方媒体也相当重视。根据吉尔吉斯自己的评估，铁路工程在境内的耗资可能达到80亿美元，这显然不是它自己能拿出来的。

十一 | 乌兹别克也不具备这个财力。唯一的办法就是寻求中国的贷款。

十二 | 因此，工程还没启动，就有西方研究者给它戴上了“债务陷阱”、“潜在腐败”、“加重吉尔吉斯对华逆差”的帽子。

但是，他们越是反对，越是表明修这条铁路的必要性。80亿美元虽然是个很大的数字，但中国还是有这个投资能力的。三国铁路网建成后，连入欧亚大陆桥，对中国对外贸易的促进，将远远超过80亿美元。要知道，在中老铁路建设和开通初期，西方媒体同样唱出了这样的调门。

十三 | 如今，他们的毒舌言论都已经不攻自破了。如果中吉乌铁路按期动工、按计划开通，将为中亚地区带来新的繁荣契机，同时还可以消除恐怖主义滋生的土壤，减少美国颠覆势力渗透的机会，对中国是有巨大战略好处的。

十四 |